This is one of the most important graphs to understand and see why limiting to 1.5 degrees celsius of global heating is probably a total fantasy at this point. Our emissions would now have to drop 15% every year (without net-negative emissions), through to 2040. If we’d started in 2000, when we had already known for 30 years that climate change was happening, we would have only had to drop 3% per year.
If emissions continue at current levels for the next few years, then the only way to limit warming to below 1.5C in the absence of net-negative emissions would be to cut all global emissions to zero… right now. Today.
Over the last decade greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5% on average each year and we’re not near peak emissions yet. Unless something utterly drastic happens, we’re definitely going to hit above 1.5 degrees.
It’s still good to aim for it because in most of our countries our policies are pathetically weak to meet either target. Let’s implement (not just pledge) everything we can to meet it, but let’s also be prepared, psychologically and in helping nations who will be most affected, that we will rise above this and do the work anyway.
The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is significant in terms of impact but it’s important to remember that climate change is progressive. It’s cumulative. Every 0.1 degree we increase makes it worse for life on Earth so let’s aim for 1.5 and make sure we stick to that side of 2 degrees, rather than the other.
Note: our current projections have us at at around 3-4C warming by 2100.
